Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence through serological uncertainty and daily incidence.

Serology tests for SARS-CoV-2 provide a paradigm for estimating the number of individuals who have had an infection in the past (including cases that are not detected by routine testing, which has varied over the course of the pandemic and between jurisdictions). Such estimation is challenging in cases for which we only have limited serological data and do not take into account the uncertainty of the serology test. In this work, we provide a joint Bayesian model to improve the estimation of the sero-prevalence (the proportion of the population with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies) through integrating multiple sources of data, priors on the sensitivity and specificity of the serological test, and an effective epidemiological dynamics model. We apply our model to the Greater Vancouver area, British Columbia, Canada, with data acquired during the pandemic from the end of January to May 2020. Our estimated sero-prevalence is consistent with previous literature but with a tighter credible interval.

Le dépistage sérologique du SRAS­CoV­2 permet d'estimer le nombre de personnes qui ont déjà été infectées (y compris les cas qui ne sont pas détectés au moyen de tests de dépistage réguliers, qui ont varié au cours de la pandémie et d'une province ou d'un territoire à l'autre). Une telle estimation est difficile lorsqu'il existe peu de données sérologiques et que l'incertitude du test sérologique n'est pas prise en compte. Nous proposons dans ce travail un modèle bayésien conjoint visant à améliorer l'estimation de la séroprévalence (la proportion de la population avec des anticorps SRAS­CoV­2) en intégrant de multiples sources de données, des lois a priori sur la sensibilité et la spécificité du test sérologique, et un modèle efficace des dynamiques épidémiologiques. Nous appliquons ce modèle à des données recueillies dans la région métropolitaine de Vancouver (Colombie­Britannique, Canada) pendant la pandémie de fin janvier à mai 2020. Notre estimation de la séroprévalence est cohérente avec la littérature antérieure tout en ayant un intervalle de crédibilité plus précis.

Sero-prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background: Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests are increasingly used for sero-epidemiological purposes to provide a better understanding of the extent of the infection in the community, and to monitor the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic. A sero-prevalence study was conducted to estimate prior infections with SARS-CoV-2 in Addis Ababa. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from April 23 to 28, 2020 among 301 randomly selected residents of Addis Ababa;sub-city health offices, health facilities and health extension workers were contacted, to obtain a population profile and to conduct the random selection of study participants. Participants were selected, who had not been in direct contact with people who had contracted COVID-19, to maintain consistency among the study population. Interviews on socio demographic and behavioural risk factors, followed by serological tests were performed for SARS-CoV-2 IgM, and IgG antibodies, using the COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test Cassette. Based on the manufacturer information, the test has a sensitivity of 87.9% and specificity of 100% for IgM;and a sensitivity of 97.2% and specificity of 100% for IgG. A Polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test was also done on combined nasopharyngeal and oropharengeal swabs. Findings: The unadjusted antibody-based crude SARS-CoV-2 prevalence was 7.6% and the adjusted (weighted average) SARS-CoV-2 prevalence was estimated at 8.8% (95% CI 5.5%-11.6%) for the study population. Higher sero-prevalence were observed for males (9.0%), age below 50 years (8.2%), students and unemployed (15.6%), as well as those with primary education (12.1%), educated above high school (37.9%), non- smokers (78.7%), with no history of regular alcohol (53.8%), no chat (70.8%), and no shisha use (94.7%). According to the findings, a significantly higher number of individuals had been infected in Addis Ababa as compared to what was being detected and reported by the RT-PCR test, which is suggestive of community transmission.

The effect of laboratory-verified smoking on SARS-CoV-2 infection: results from the Troina sero-epidemiological survey.

Previous research yielded conflicting results on the association between cigarette smoking and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Since the prevalence of smoking is high globally, the study of its impact on COVID-19 pandemic may have considerable implications for public health. This study is the first to investigate the association between the SARS-CoV-2 antibody sero-positivity and biochemically verified smoking status, to refine current estimates on this association. SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and serum cotinine levels (a well-known marker of tobacco exposure) were assessed in a large sero-epidemiological survey conducted in the town of Troina (Sicily, Italy). A propensity score matching was carried out to reduce the effect of possible factors on SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among study participants. Of the 1785 subjects included in our study, one-third was classified as current smokers, based on serum cotinine levels. The overall proportion of subjects with positive serology for SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 5.4%. The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity and previous COVID-19 diagnosis were reduced in smokers. This reduced prevalence persisted after adjusting for possible confounders (such as sex, age, previous infection, chronic conditions, and risk group) at regression analyses, and the point estimates based on the PS-matched models resulted consistent with those for the unmatched population. This study found a lower proportion of positive SARS-CoV-2 serology among current smokers, using direct laboratory measures of tobacco exposure and thus avoiding possible bias associated with self-reported smoking status. Results may also serve as a reference for future clinical research on potential pharmaceutical role of nicotine or nicotinic-cholinergic agonists against COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence in the workforces of three large workplaces in South Wales: a sero-epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Sero-prevalence studies quantify the proportion of a population that has antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and can be used to identify the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic at a population level. The aim of the study was to assess the sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the workforce at three workplaces: a food factory, non-food factory and call-centre. METHODS: Nine hundred ninety-three participants were recruited from three workplaces in South Wales. Participants completed a questionnaire and had a lateral flow point-of-care SARS-CoV-2 antibody test administered by a healthcare professional. The data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression, both using complete records only and following multiple imputation. RESULTS: The sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies ranged from 4% (n = 17/402) in the non-food factory to 10% (n = 28/281) in the food factory (OR 2.93; 95% CI 1.26 to 6.81). After taking account of confounding factors evidence of a difference remained (cOR comparing food factory to call centre (2.93; 95% CI 1.26 to 6.81) and non-food factory (3.99; 95% CI 1.97 to 8.08) respectively). The SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence also varied between roles within workplaces. People working in office based roles had a 2.23 times greater conditional odds (95% CI 1.02 to 4.87) of being positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies than those working on the factory floor. CONCLUSION: The sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies varied by workplace and work role. Whilst it is not possible to state whether these differences are due to COVID-19 transmission within the workplaces, it highlights the importance of considering COVID-19 transmission in a range of workplaces and work roles.

From first to second wave: follow-up of the prospective COVID-19 cohort (KoCo19) in Munich (Germany).

BACKGROUND: In the 2nd year of the COVID-19 pandemic, knowledge about the dynamics of the infection in the general population is still limited. Such information is essential for health planners, as many of those infected show no or only mild symptoms and thus, escape the surveillance system. We therefore aimed to describe the course of the pandemic in the Munich general population living in private households from April 2020 to January 2021. METHODS: The KoCo19 baseline study took place from April to June 2020 including 5313 participants (age 14 years and above). From November 2020 to January 2021, we could again measure SARS-CoV-2 antibody status in 4433 of the baseline participants (response 83%). Participants were offered a self-sampling kit to take a capillary blood sample (dry blood spot; DBS). Blood was analysed using the Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche). Questionnaire information on socio-demographics and potential risk factors assessed at baseline was available for all participants. In addition, follow-up information on health-risk taking behaviour and number of personal contacts outside the household (N = 2768) as well as leisure time activities (N = 1263) were collected in summer 2020. RESULTS: Weighted and adjusted (for specificity and sensitivity) SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence at follow-up was 3.6% (95% CI 2.9-4.3%) as compared to 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-3.4%) at baseline. 91% of those tested positive at baseline were also antibody-positive at follow-up. While sero-prevalence increased from early November 2020 to January 2021, no indication of geospatial clustering across the city of Munich was found, although cases clustered within households. Taking baseline result and time to follow-up into account, men and participants in the age group 20-34 years were at the highest risk of sero-positivity. In the sensitivity analyses, differences in health-risk taking behaviour, number of personal contacts and leisure time activities partly explained these differences. CONCLUSION: The number of citizens in Munich with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was still below 5% during the 2nd wave of the pandemic. Antibodies remained present in the majority of SARS-CoV-2 sero-positive baseline participants. Besides age and sex, potentially confounded by differences in behaviour, no major risk factors could be identified. Non-pharmaceutical public health measures are thus still important.

Nationwide population-based surveys of Iranian COVID-19 Serological Surveillance (ICS) program: The surveys protocol.

Background: Serological surveillance of COVID-19 through conducting repetitive population-based surveys can be useful in estimating and monitoring changes in the prevalence of infection across the country. This paper presents the protocol of nationwide population-based surveys of the Iranian COVID-19 Serological Surveillance (ICS) program. Methods: The target population of the surveys is all individuals ≥6 years in Iran. Stratified random sampling will be used to select participants from those registered in the primary health care electronic record systems in Iran. The strata are the 31 provinces of the country, in which sampling will be done through simple random sampling. The sample size is estimated 858 individuals for each province (except for Tehran province, which is 2574) at the first survey. It will be recalculated for the next surveys based on the findings of the first survey. The participants will be invited by the community health workers to the safe blood sampling centers at the district level. After obtaining written informed consent, 10 mL of venous blood will be taken from the participants. The blood samples will be transferred to selected reference laboratories in order to test IgG and IgM antibodies against COVID-19 using an Iranian SARS-CoV-2 ELISA Kit (Pishtaz Teb). A serologically positive test is defined as a positive IgG, IgM, or both. After adjusting for the measurement error of the laboratory test, nonresponse bias, and sampling design, the prevalence of COVID-19 will be estimated at the provincial and national levels. Also, the approximate incidence rate of infection will be calculated based on the data of both consecutive surveys. Conclusion: The implementation of these surveys will provide a comprehensive and clear picture of the magnitude of COVID-19 infection and its trend over time for health policymakers at the national and subnational levels.

SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a synagogue community: longevity and strength of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG responses.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is still ongoing along with the global vaccination efforts against it. Here, we aimed to understand the longevity and strength of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG responses in a small community (n = 283) six months following local SARS-COV-2 outbreak in March 2020. Three serological assays were compared and neutralisation capability was also determined. Overall 16.6% (47/283) of the participants were seropositive and 89.4% (42/47) of the IgG positives had neutralising antibodies. Most of the symptomatic individuals confirmed as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive during the outbreak were seropositive (30/32, 93.8%) and 33.3% of the individuals who quarantined with a PCR confirmed patient had antibodies. Serological assays comparison revealed that Architect (Abbott) targeting the N protein LIASON® (DiaSorin) targeting the S protein and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) targeting receptor binding domain detected 9.5% (27/283), 17.3% (49/283) and 17% (48/283), respectively, as IgG positives. The latter two assays highly agreed (kappa = 0.89) between each other. In addition, 95%, (19/20, by ELISA) and 90.9% (20/22, with LIASON) and only 71.4% (15/21, by Architect) of individuals that were seropositive in May 2020 were found positive also in September. The unexpected low rate of overall immunity indicates the absence of un-noticed, asymptomatic infections. Lack of overall high correlation between the assays is attributed mainly to target-mediated antibody responses and suggests that using a single serological assay may be misleading.

Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 serological assays for use in epidemiological surveillance in Scotland.

Background: Sero-surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is crucial to monitoring levels of population exposure and informing public health responses, but may be influenced by variability in performance between available assays. Methods: Five commercial immunoassays and a neutralising activity assay were used to detect antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in routine primary care and paediatric samples collected during the first wave of the pandemic in NHS Lothian, Scotland as part of ongoing surveillance efforts. For each assay, sensitivity and specificity was calculated relative to consensus results (majority of immunoassays positive = overall positive) and neutralising activity. Quantitative correlation was performed between serological and neutralising titres. Results: Seroprevalence ranged from 3.4-7.3 % in primary care patients and 3-5.9 % in paediatric patients according to different immunoassays. Neutralising activity was detectable in 2.8 % and 1.3 % respectively. Relative assay performance changed depending on comparison to immunoassay consensus versus neutralising activity and qualititative versus quantitative agreement. Cross-reactivity with endemic seasonal coronaviruses was confirmed by neutralising assay in false positives for one immunoassay. Presence of false positives for another assay was found specifically in paediatric but not adult samples. Conclusions: Five serological assays show variable accuracy when applied to the general population, impacting seroprevalence estimates. Assay performance may also vary in detection of protective neutralising antibody levels. These aspects should be considered in assay selection and interpretation in epidemiological studies.

Insights from a Pan India Sero-Epidemiological survey (Phenome-India Cohort) for SARS-CoV2.

To understand the spread of SARS-CoV2, in August and September 2020, the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (India) conducted a serosurvey across its constituent laboratories and centers across India. Of 10,427 volunteers, 1058 (10.14%) tested positive for SARS-CoV2 anti-nucleocapsid (anti-NC) antibodies, 95% of which had surrogate neutralization activity. Three-fourth of these recalled no symptoms. Repeat serology tests at 3 (n = 607) and 6 (n = 175) months showed stable anti-NC antibodies but declining neutralization activity. Local seropositivity was higher in densely populated cities and was inversely correlated with a 30-day change in regional test positivity rates (TPRs). Regional seropositivity above 10% was associated with declining TPR. Personal factors associated with higher odds of seropositivity were high-exposure work (odds ratio, 95% confidence interval, p value: 2.23, 1.92-2.59, <0.0001), use of public transport (1.79, 1.43-2.24, <0.0001), not smoking (1.52, 1.16-1.99, 0.0257), non-vegetarian diet (1.67, 1.41-1.99, <0.0001), and B blood group (1.36, 1.15-1.61, 0.001).

Association of PPE Availability, Training, and Practices with COVID-19 Sero-Prevalence in Nurses and Paramedics in Tertiary Care Hospitals of Peshawar, Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: Nurses and paramedics by being the frontline workers of the health-care profession need to be equipped with the relevant knowledge, skills, and protective gears against different forms of infection, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Although the governments and concerned stakeholders have provided personal protective equipment (PPE), training and information to protect the health-care professionals; however, until now the scientific literature has virtually not reported the impact of PPE availability, training, and practices on the COVID-19 sero-prevalence among the nurses and paramedics. This study aimed to assess the impact of PPE availability, training, and practices on COVID-19 sero-prevalence among nurses and paramedics in teaching hospitals of Peshawar, Pakistan. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a total of 133 nurses and paramedics as subjects of the study. RESULTS: A univariate analysis was done for 4 variables. The findings indicate that the health-care professionals (nurses and paramedics) who have received PPE on time at the start of COVID-19 emergence have fewer chances of contracting the COVID-19 infection (odds ratio = 0.96); while the odds for PPE supplies was 0.73, and the odds of hand hygiene training was 0.95. CONCLUSIONS: The study concluded that the availability of the PPE, COVID-19-related training, and compliance with World Health Organization recommended practices against COVID-19 were instrumental in protection against the infection and its spread.

Occurrence of Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in the Domestic Cat Population of Germany.

Domestic cats (Felis catus) are popular companion animals that live in close contact with their human owners. Therefore, the risk of a trans-species spreading event between domestic cats and humans is ever-present. Shortly after the emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its rapid spread around the world, the role of domestic cats in the transmission cycle was questioned. In the present study, the first large-scale survey of antibody occurrence in the domestic cat population in Germany was conducted, in order to assess the incidence of naturally occurring human to cat transmission of SARS-CoV-2. A total of 920 serum samples, which were collected from April to September of 2020, were screened by an indirect multispecies ELISA. Positive samples were verified using an indirect immunofluorescence test (iIFT) and additionally tested for neutralizing antibodies. Furthermore, serum samples were screened for antibodies against feline coronavirus (FCoV), in order to rule out cross-reactivity in the described test systems. Overall, 0.69% (6/920) of serum samples were found to be positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 by ELISA and iIFT. Two of these reactive sera also displayed neutralizing antibodies. No cross-reactivity with FCoV-specific antibodies was observed. The finding of SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positive serum samples in the domestic cat population of Germany, during a period when the incidence of human infection in the country was still rather low, indicates that human-to-cat transmission of SARS-CoV-2 happens, but there is no indication of SARS-CoV-2 circulation in cats.

Estimating the Percentage of a Population Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Using the Number of Reported Deaths: A Policy Planning Tool.

The magnitude of future waves of Covid19 in a population will depend, in part, on the percentage of that population already infected, recovered, and presumably immune. Sero-epidemiological surveys can define the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in various populations. However, sero-surveys are resource-intensive and methodologically challenging, limiting widespread use. We propose a relatively simple method for calculating the percentage of a population infected, which depends on the number of reported Covid19 deaths, a figure usually more reliable and less dependent on variable testing practices than the total number of reported Covid19 cases, and the infection fatality rate, a figure that is relatively stable in similar populations. The method can be applied in different sized areas, such as states, districts, or cities. Such an approach can provide useful, real-time estimates of probable population immunity in settings unable to undertake multiple sero-surveys. This method is applicable to low- and lower-middle-income country (LMIC) settings where sero-survey data will likely be limited; however, better estimates of infection fatality rates and Covid19 death counts in LMICs are needed to improve the method's accuracy. Information on the percentage of a population infected will help public health authorities in planning for future waves of Covid19, including where to most effectively deploy vaccines.

In the midst of the perfect storm: Swift public health actions needed in order to increase societal safety during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The phenomenal speed of COVID-19 has subjected the public health professionals worldwide to struggle to subdue the spread of the disease and its impact of the affected societies. The limited biomedical and epidemiological understanding of COVID-19 along with the lack of vaccines and therapeutics have led to the reception of draconian measures from the societal safety domain, limiting human interaction through social distancing. Grounded on the adopted approaches, interventions in sero-prevalence studies, mobilisation of the primary health care (PHC) sector, as well as target socially vulnerable groups should be taken into consideration by heath authorities.